Estudio pronostica fin de la especie humana en el año 2050

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Cada semana hay un nuevo informe aterrador sobre cómo el cambio climático provocado por el hombre causará el colapso de las capas de hielo del mundo, resultará en la extinción de hasta 1 millón de especies animales y, si no fuera tan malo, crea Nuestra cerveza muy, muy cara. Esta semana, un nuevo documento de políticas de un think tank australiano afirma que esos otros informes están ligeramente fuera de lugar; Los riesgos del cambio climático son en realidad mucho, mucho peores de lo que nadie puede imaginar.

Según el documento, el cambio climático plantea una «amenaza existencial de corto a medio plazo para la civilización humana», y existe una gran posibilidad de que la sociedad se derrumbe en 2050 si no se toman medidas de mitigación en la próxima década.

La tesis central del artículo es que los científicos del clima son demasiado limitados en sus predicciones de cómo funciona el Centro Nacional de Fomento para la Restauración del Clima en Melbourne (un grupo de expertos independiente centrado en la política del clima) y escrito por un investigador del clima y un ex ejecutivo de combustibles fósiles. El cambio climático afectará al planeta en un futuro cercano.

La crisis climática actual, dicen, es más grande y más compleja de lo que cualquier humano haya tratado antes. Modelos climáticos generales, como el que utilizó el Panel de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC) en 2018 para predecir que un aumento de la temperatura global de 3,6 grados Fahrenheit (2 grados centígrados) podría poner en riesgo a cientos de millones de personas. tener en cuenta la gran complejidad de los muchos procesos geológicos interconectados de la Tierra; como tales, no logran predecir adecuadamente la escala de las posibles consecuencias. La verdad, escribieron los autores, es probablemente mucho peor de lo que cualquier modelo puede imaginar.

Como se acaba el mundo

¿Cómo podría ser, en realidad, una imagen precisa del peor de los casos del futuro impregnado del clima del planeta? Los autores ofrecen un escenario particularmente sombrío que comienza con los gobiernos del mundo «ignorando cortésmente» el consejo de los científicos y la voluntad del público de descarbonizar la economía (encontrando fuentes de energía alternativas), lo que resulta en un aumento de la temperatura global de 5.4 F (3 C) para el año 2050. En este punto, las capas de hielo del mundo se desvanecen; las sequías brutales matan a muchos de los árboles en la selva amazónica (eliminando una de las mayores compensaciones de carbono del mundo); y el planeta se sumerge en un circuito de retroalimentación de condiciones cada vez más calientes y más letales.

«El treinta y cinco por ciento de la superficie terrestre global y el 55 por ciento de la población mundial están sujetos a más de 20 días al año de condiciones de calor letal, más allá del umbral de la supervivencia humana», plantean los autores.

Mientras tanto, las sequías, las inundaciones y los incendios forestales devastan regularmente la tierra. Casi un tercio de la superficie terrestre del mundo se convierte en desierto. Los ecosistemas enteros colapsan, comenzando con los arrecifes de coral del planeta, la selva tropical y las capas de hielo del Ártico. Los trópicos del mundo son los más afectados por estos nuevos extremos climáticos, que destruyen la agricultura de la región y convierten a más de mil millones de personas en refugiados.

Este movimiento masivo de refugiados, junto con la reducción de las costas y las severas caídas en la disponibilidad de alimentos y agua, comienza a estresar el tejido de las naciones más grandes del mundo, incluido Estados Unidos. Los conflictos armados por los recursos, tal vez que culminan en una guerra nuclear, son probables.

El resultado, según el nuevo documento, es un «caos absoluto» y quizás «el fin de la civilización humana global como la conocemos».

¿Cómo se puede prevenir esta catastrófica visión del futuro? Solo con la gente del mundo que acepta el cambio climático para la emergencia y se pone a trabajar de inmediato. Según los autores del artículo, a la raza humana le queda aproximadamente una década para organizar un movimiento global para hacer la transición de la economía mundial a un sistema de cero emisiones de carbono. (Para lograr emisiones de carbono cero es necesario no emitir carbono o equilibrar las emisiones de carbono con la eliminación de carbono). El esfuerzo requerido para hacerlo «sería similar a la movilización de emergencia de la Segunda Guerra Mundial», escribieron los autores.

El nuevo documento de política fue respaldado con un prólogo por el almirante Chris Barrie, un jefe de defensa australiano retirado y comandante de la marina real senior que ha testificado ante el Senado australiano sobre las posibilidades devastadoras que el cambio climático representa para la seguridad nacional y el bienestar humano en general.

«Le dije a la Investigación [del Senado] que, después de la guerra nuclear, el calentamiento global inducido por el hombre es la mayor amenaza para la vida humana en el planeta», escribió Barrie en el nuevo documento. «La vida humana en la Tierra puede estar en vías de extinción, de la manera más horrible».

Fuente: LiveScience

Fuente: Estudio pronostica fin de la especie humana en el año 2050

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